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Explained: why the monsoon arrives earlier in some years and later in others

Ocean temperatures and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean set the timing.

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  • What happened and why it matters.
  • Who is affected first.
  • What to watch for next.
Mist rising over a glacier
Stock photograph used as an illustration; it does not show the place, event or people in the story. Photo: Photo: Roger Burkhard via Wikimedia Commons (CC0-1.0)

The monsoon starts when warm moist winds from the Indian Ocean reach the coast. The date moves because ocean temperatures and wind patterns change from year to year.

Scientists track sea surface temperature and a pressure pattern between two sides of the ocean to forecast timing.

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